Paradigm Shift: Now Turn the Page

Of all the industries going through the current paradigm shifts driven by technological change, the book publishing industry is perhaps the most affected, and the most threatened

Feature by Bram E. Gieben | 06 Sep 2013

The Scottish writer Ewan Morrison, who recently began a satirical, dystopian series on the future of publishing for the Guardian, believes the restructuring of distribution networks, the rise of self-publishing, and increasingly generic, franchised notions of 'content' supplanting literature and culture have engaged the publishing world in a “race to the bottom.”

“We've been taught how to behave like 'masses' since the birth of consumerism. People want to consume the same things,” he argues. People “didn't even bother to read their copies of 50 Shades of Grey.” Those in the top echelons of publishing are earning more than ever, while emerging and niche concerns are going broke. The 'long tail' model, proposed by Chris Anderson in a 2004 article for Wired, has failed. “There's no smooth transition from that to things that sell smaller numbers – there's a sudden drop. That notion that there would be healthy niche markets within the long tail internet model has collapsed. The paradigm shift has not overthrown the notion of receiving singular products of mass culture."


Paradigm Shift: Beyond the Silver Screen

Paradigm Shift: Until The Music Stops


 

Does the future resemble the dystopia of Morrison's Guardian piece, with fan fiction and franchise spin-offs dominating culture while new writers and publishers fall off what he calls “the de-monetised cliff”? Or does the rise of self-publishing and online retail merely offer new opportunities; a more democratic route to audiences?

NAVIGATING THE AMAZON
Many of the authors we spoke to were devastatingly critical of Amazon's business model. Amazon control around 75% of the UK book market, but complaints about the discounting of books and the de-monetisation of literature stem back to 1991, with the setting aside of the Net Book Agreement, which allowed a united publishing industry to charge a minimum price for their output.

Marc Lambert, now Chief Executive at the Scottish Book Trust, worked for Waterstones in the 80s. He believes the high street model is “as good as dead... in one sense this is a pity. In another it is thoroughly deserved.” The chains “destroyed their own business model, all in the name of free market thinking.”

Mark Buckland, who runs the successful Glasgow-based publisher Cargo Press, agrees. “What we had before was an equilibrium where everybody got paid a fair amount. Should we bring it back? Maybe. Are we ever going to be able to? No. As soon as the supermarkets get involved, that is over as an idea.”

The accusation that Amazon care more about profit than culture is almost impossible to refute, but Christopher Brookmyre, several of whose novels have been bestsellers, is a little more generous: “Amazon are always going to be drawn to something that is guaranteed to sell in large volume. I don't think it's therefore the case that they think it doesn't matter about building up a readership around a particular author. They'll be aware themselves that if there are a million books out there, and nobody knows if any of them are any good, people might not buy any at all.”


“There will come a day when a bookshop is just a giant print on demand machine in a supermarket” – Mark Buckland, Cargo Press


Doug Johnstone, also a thriller writer, has seen benefits from Amazon sales, but finds the implications alarming. The problem is “they have a stranglehold on publishing. Both of my last two novels were Kindle 'deals of the day' and they both sold more in that day than all my other books combined, for my entire career – at 99p. I got 25% of whatever Faber got from Amazon. It's staggering.”

Ra Page, editor and publisher at Manchester-based Comma Press, tends to side with Morrison. “Not satisfied with thrashing the high street, they want to thrash publishers as well. They want a publishing industry that amounts to a virtual warehouse, that they own. No publishers, no editors. Just Amazon.”

Buckland offers an insight into policy at the highest levels of Amazon: “They are not interested in retail. Why? Because they've already won. They are moving into crazy stuff now, like virtual offices, cloud computing, real estate.” He sadly believes the high street retail model is “just not sustainable, when the competition can deliver the same product direct to your door the next day.” His vision of the future is similarly grim: “There will come a day when a bookshop is just a giant print-on-demand machine in a supermarket.”

With print-on-demand, self-published e-books and direct delivery via Amazon increasingly dominating the market, is there another way of looking at the internet distribution model? One that could perhaps accommodate a healthy and competitive publishing culture, rather than the emergent monoculture suggested by the recent merger of Penguin and Random House? “The only fix for this is a larger economic paradigm shift,” suggests Morrison, otherwise “the big media corporations are going to synergise across music, books, films. You will have an even more entrenched, exclusionary mainstream, and the rest of it will be this kind of hopeful fishing around the bottom.”

Buckland, who recently enjoyed being treated as a whipping boy for the publishing industry at an Edinburgh Book Festival panel on 'Writers in a Digital Age' offers a few chinks of light. “We're at a weird crossroads now,” he says. “The whole publishing industry is fracturing, at every level – from writers, to publishers, to distributors, to the bookstores themselves. Niches are becoming more and more prominent.”

The sense that niche markets would emerge to replace mainstream literary movements and markets is an attractive one, which Morrison strongly refutes. But if these niches are going to thrive, will it be only through the support of publishers like Cargo? Will a new equilibrium emerge in the ever-growing, direct-to-market micro-industry grouped under the previously reviled term of 'self-publishing?'

DO IT YOURSELF
Many if not most people in the publishing industry hold a dismissive view of the growth of self-publishing – and not, as popular belief might suggest, out of a sense of elitism or snobbery. Rather, their skepticisim is based on the statistics. The best Adrian Searle, head of independent publisher Freight Books, can offer is that occasionally, the vast ocean of self-published work now extant can be viewed as “a kind of crowd-sourced slush pile.”

The signal to noise ratio has increased, and often it is hard to find work of quality. “If you browse Amazon looking only at the books that are 50 pence, you could be browsing for hours before you find something that's even worth that,” says Brookmyre. “If a writer achieves some good sales as a self-published Kindle author, you would hope that that they might then end up at a publishing house, where they'll get the benefit of editorial advice that will nurture their abilities.”

Brookmyre's argument underlines the fact that the success of writers like E.L. James, author of 50 Shades of Grey (the UK's best-selling book last year, shifting 10.5 million units, outpacing her nearest competitors by a cool 8 million) is something of a shibboleth – although their viral success began on Amazon, they had to move to a traditional publisher to achieve the kind of volume and quality control that transformed them into worldwide bestsellers. On this point, Morrison's views are excoriating: “There are really only about five people in the world who've done well out of self-publishing. Of those five, four have used it as a platform to get a mainstream deal. That is fundamentally different from the digital utopian premise of 'life beyond the publishing houses.'” This jumping-ship is, he says, “a betrayal of the digital dream,” and “leaves what remains in the long tail of self-publishing devalued. It then becomes relatively cheap, amateur content that no-one's looking at.”

Lambert's analysis is plausible – the E.L. James phenomenon means “what used to be seen as an exercise in vanity is now seen as a canny, businesslike approach to being read and getting paid for it.” This gives rise to “chaotic excess, which eventually will need to be mediated by... a certain kind of product at a certain kind of standard. That is the opportunity for established, historically reputable publishers to find their way in this market.”

“It reminds me of the punk explosion,” says Brookmyre. “It was very empowering, there was something democratic about it. But there weren't that many bands who were any good, or whose work has endured. I'm frequently appalled at how badly [self-published books] are written. People need to understand the value of professional editorial advice.”

Doug Johnstone, whose agent Allan Guthrie started a digital-only imprint Blasted Heath, is a little less cynical. “I would self-publish, I don't have a problem with that,” he says. Since 2006, when he published his first novel, he has seen a huge shift in attitudes towards self-publishing. “It was frowned upon – it was your bampots and Hitler theorists,” he says. This has changed, but “there are brilliant self-published novels which didn't sell a bean, and total crap that sells 50,000 copies.”

Luke Wright, a poet with a background on the spoken word and performance circuit who has just published his first full-length page collection with Penned In The Margins, can see why people entertain the notion of self-publishing. “I can go out and sell 1000 books a year,” he says. “So why don't I just do my own book? It's not like it's not professional – I work with an editor. But if the majority of your sales are coming from live gigs, why give a publisher 90% of the money?” Wright set up Nasty Little Press rather than going solo via Amazon or similar platforms.

For Brookmyre, “these are exciting times, despite the logistical problems.” Although he remains “far from convinced” by the self-publishing boom, he believes there are opportunities to be had, especially for small presses who can cater to niche needs. Mark Buckland agrees, and he considers Cargo to be a publisher that actively pursues niche markets. “Niche is a dirty word, and it shouldn't be,” he says. “The niches are where we will try and do cross-platform stuff. The media of our time are TV, film and the internet, so you have to penetrate into that.”

However, unlike with music and some film content, opportunities for sync deals are few and far between. “Books don't lend themselves to an instantly-disposable culture,” Buckland laments. “If you release an album and one track is sold to advertise a car, you've pretty much just made your living out of it. You can't do that with words. As publishers, we are going to have to get a lot smarter about how we bundle content together. We have to create offers the public actually want to buy. There will have to be more partnerships and collaborations. You share the risk a little.”

SUSTAINABILITY
Behind Mark Buckland's comments about niche markets, there is a deeper message – firstly, that if writers and publishers are to survive the paradigm shift, they must create content which people want to buy. Secondly, and more worryingly, something must be done to support the creatives in the field. “The writing has been on the wall for professional writing for some time,” Buckland believes. “The average earning for a professional writer in the UK is £3000. That's a terrifying statistic. At the same time, there were 16 authors in the US last year who earned more than $12 million. The gulf is the problem.”

This ties in to Ewan Morrison's comments: “This is a much harsher world than the one I grew up in. I've managed to sustain myself as a creative person across different forms since about the age of 20, working in TV, journalism, film and publishing. I've noticed a decline in all of these industries, in terms of being able to have a living wage. TV is still healthy. Look at the BBC – they've got a poll tax, basically, and we're subsidising it.” The key to the BBC's ability, and that of US TV companies, to pay writers a living wage is that “they have a subscriber base.” For Morrison at least, “that is really the answer to some of the problems that we're facing.”

“Three or four years ago, says Morrison, “across the board, every single writer I know suffered an 80 percent drop in their advances.” The result? “A mass exodus into teaching.” At an event during this year's Edinburgh Book Festival, the authors Toby Litt and Rachel Cusk described how much of their income comes from teaching on creative writing courses at universities. A.L. Kennedy, also on the panel, confessed she would have mixed feelings about doing the same, saying such courses are “ripping off people's dreams.” Morrison strongly agrees: “There are thousands of people in the UK who are never going to be published who are doing these courses.”

Adrian Searle of Freight Books has publicly advocated state-funded stipends for the most talented writers, and believes “literature is the only artform where practitioners aren’t paid properly to do their thing.” He points out that much classical music, dance and theatre is almost entirely state-funded: “The fact that so few writers get even half a living wage is a national scandal.” However, he also believes “poets, novelists and story-writers don’t automatically deserve to write full-time. Writers have always had to do other things. How many writers from the 80s back wrote full-time unless they had a private income?”

Marc Lambert's advice for aspiring writers is pragmatic: “The truth is, it is very difficult indeed to make a living from the craft.” Asked if he sees the Trust's role more as a necessary means of support for emerging writers, or a potential crutch for literary writers who don't make many sales, he hedges his bets. It should be “both, but always on a case by case individual basis which identifies and privileges talent.”

Brookmyre argues convincingly for the notion of cross-funding: “There are decisions taken at publishers to publish an autobiography of a boyband who are all only 21. But they know the money they will take in from that will help them take risks on new, first time novelists.” 

One model which hasn't been widely used in book publishing, at least so far, is crowdfunding, now an integral part of the business practice of record labels and film studios. But Ewan Morrison says this model is “just a slightly more democratic form of patronage. It's a sideline, a surrogate and a patch-up job for an industry in trouble.”

Unlike musicians, who can still bring in revenue from touring, many authors find it difficult to find writing-related revenue streams, other than teaching. Even Luke Wright, who was making money from performance long before he published a book, confesses that the money to be made from performance is far from a king's ransom. Like the novelists we spoke to, the poets he knows “don't make their money from gigs, they make their money through education.” As for the notion that creative writing courses are a tax on the creative and ambitious, he chuckles and says: “We all pay for our dreams, in one way or another. I pay for my dreams in belly fat and sleep deprivation.”

SINKING LIKE A STONE?
“I am sad that bookshops are vanishing,” says short story writer Adam Marek. “Browsing in bookshops is the best way to discover new books. Recommendations from Amazon’s algorithms can’t come close.” He predicts that “bookshops will continue to exist as a specialist shop, like the rare tobacconists, for at least the next 60 years, until every member of my generation, the last to reach adulthood without the internet, is dead.”

Adrian Searle believes “indies will fill the gap on the high street,” and says “supporting indie bookshops is vital for the culture... They should get the same tax breaks as charity shops.” Brookmyre meanwhile says the failure of high street bookshops would be “utterly disastrous,” and is wary of the rise of e-book formats. “I wouldn't like to think of books becoming this purely ethereal thing, rendered purely in software,” he says. “From toddlerhood upwards, it's a very important and empowering experience to be taken into a bookshop.”

Buckland laments the fact that independent bookshops can be unreliable when it comes to paying accounts, and says that Cargo depends on the high street chains: “If there was a strong alliance of independent bookshops, one that could push publishers and distributors around, yes that would be a lot healthier. But they would still be a minority buyer.” He estimates that the loss of the major chains would cost his company as much as 90% of their business.

For Doug Johnstone, the solution is for the chains to “mimic” independent stores: “You have to trust their staff to recommend stuff to you. But they have been really slow to react,” he says, adding: “Hell mend them if they don't adapt.”

CONTENT OR LITERATURE?
None of the publishers or authors were prepared to dismiss e-books as a fad, or to declaim them as the 'death of the novel.' Mark Buckland is enthusiastic about the possibilities of 'enhanced content' e-books, even though he agrees with Ra Page that for now, they are something of a novelty. However, the rise of the e-book has brought with it another phenomenon – the increasing popularity of fan fiction, cross-platform spin-offs, and franchises.

“Things like Twilight are synergised commodities,” says Ewan Morrison. “The internet was supposed to liberate us into greater pluralism, a wider diversity. What's happened is, yes there's more diversity, but it has become de-monetised.” He warns of a situation where new art is worth nothing – franchises are all that sell, and fan fiction becomes increasingly legitimised. “We've become culturally impoverished. Hopefully people are going to wake up to the political reality of what's going on here – I don't want to spend the next ten or twenty years in this endless desert of cultural recycling.”

What hope can Morrison offer? He speaks of a need for a "shakedown" from "beyond the culture industries themselves,” quoting Russia Today economist Max Keiser's theory on the “looming sovereign debt crisis which is going to decimate the Western economies.” Morrison believes “it's coming pretty soon... initially it will only make things worse, because we'll all be plunged into further debt, and we won't want to spend any money on culture at all. We have to gear our minds up – we have to have strategies for dealing with the collapse.”

For Morrison, the solution to the de-monetised cliff, and the improvement of the self-publishing sector is the same. “It's time for the radical thinkers who put so much thought into how the internet revolution could be different to take an appraisal.” As publishers, writers and booksellers across the industry struggle to process changes continuing to engulf their working lives, and the un-regulated 'brave new world' of self-publishing continues to evolve and thrive, only one thing is certain in the grips of this paradigm shift – from here on out, the only constant is change.

  • Read the first two installments in the Paradigm Shift series here:

Paradigm Shift: Beyond the Silver Screen

Paradigm Shift: Until The Music Stops

 

Ewan Morrison has been shortlisted for the Scottish Mortgage investment Trust Novel of the year.

With thanks to Ryan Rushton, Ewan Morrison, Mark Buckland and the Edinburgh International Book Festival for advice, research and support.