The Oscars Are Coming

At the 1982 Academy Awards, Colin Welland, having just picked up the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for Chariots of Fire, famously proclaimed that "The British are coming!" A mere 25 years later, the curly-haired Nostradamus may finally be vindicated. In a standout year for British filmmaking, there's a reasonable chance that each of the major categories could have a winner from these shores.

Leading the way is The Queen, a cert for a nomination in the Best Picture category. Stephen Frears' superior drama garnered a host of Golden Globe nominations and wins, a strong Oscar indicator. It faces stiff competition, however, from the venerable vanguard of Hollywood, Clint Eastwood, whose Flags of our Fathers ticks all the boxes for Oscar material. As war movies go it's a teeny bit left-of-centre, which usually does it for the politically aware Academy voters.

The outside bet for Best Picture has to be inferior remake The Departed because, well, it's a Martin Scorsese movie. The veteran director should really consider using a pseudonym, such is the antipathy of the Academy towards him. One surprise contender could be stage adaptation Dreamgirls, which, remarkably, sees Eddie Murphy turn in a decent performance. And let's not forget Mel Gibson's "historical" epic, Apocalypto. Thankfully for Mel, all booze is free at the bash.

Traditionally the Director category is little more than an extension of the Best Picture selection, but a pair of, gasp, foreign directors may find themselves joining Frears, Scorsese et al. Pedro Almodovar should, but won't, pick up the accolade for Volver, while Alejandro González Iñárritu, frankly, doesn't deserve to win for the sprawling Babel.

The best British hopes rest with two acting legends. Peter O'Toole is heavily favoured to pick up a leading actor award at the eighth attempt, for a terrific performance in dark comedy Venus. That's if the voters can see past Leo DiCaprio for either The Departed, or his dreadful South Eefrican accent in Blood Diamond. The acceptance speech everyone wants to hear, but host Ellen DeGeneres dreads, is from Sacha Baron Cohen, Golden Globe winner for Borat. But look for Forest Whitaker to trump them all as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland.

My mortgage, children and immortal soul, however, are being placed on Helen Mirren to pick up an Oscar for her turn as The Queen. The biggest challenges will probably come from fellow Brit, Judi Dench or Aussie co-star, Cate Blanchett, for Notes on a Scandal and Penélope Cruz, for Volver.

The supporting role awards rarely ignite public interest, being a silver medal in Oscar terms. Let's hope that Brad Pitt's gurning in Babel isn't rewarded, at the expense of Jack Nicholson, whose malevolent presence lit up The Departed. American Idol loser, Jennifer Hudson, bucked the trend of reality shows by displaying genuine talent in Dreamgirls, and should win the Supporting Actress award.

Being the Academy Awards, however, talent doesn't often come into the equation. Put simply, Oscar equals box office and, as such, we shouldn't raise our expectations. More certain than laugh-free links from host DeGeneres, is a raft of Hollywood product, still on general release, scooping the statuettes. God forbid Almodovar be given the chance to declare, "The Spanish are coming!"