Oscars 2017: Predictions in the main categories

Before we begin with our crystal ball gazing, let’s get one thing straight: the Oscars are hokum. They in no way represent the best filmmaking from the last 12 months. Cast your eye over recent Best Picture winners and you’ll see they run the gamut of good (Birdman, The Hurt Locker), bad (Argo, The Artist) and downright terrible (The King’s Speech, Crash, Slumdog Millionaire).

Like recent democratic votes, the Academy’s results are often mystifying and frustrating. In other words: if this year’s Best Picture winner turns out to be a great film, it’s purely coincidental. In saying all that, we love second guessing the old kooks who make up the Academy voters, so here’s our stab at who will win on Sunday, who we’ll be rooting for, who doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot in the first place and who should have been in the conversation instead.

Best Picture

This is surely a two-horse race between the pop fizz of Damien Chazelle’s modern musical romance La La Land and Moonlight, the poetic tale of a gay black boy coming of age in blue collar Miami. Will the Academy show themselves to be a bunch of fuddy-duddy narcissists and celebrate the former (its voters love films about their own industry – it’s the only explanation for Argo’s win back in 2014)? Or can the beauty and emotion of Moonlight outshine Chazelle’s film’s razzle-dazzle?

The dominance of these two films in the Best Picture race has meant three truly great titles have been all but ignored. La La Land and Moonlight might be the films of the moment, but as far as we’re concerned, Kenneth Lonergan’s hilarious and heartbreaking drama Manchester by the Sea, David Mackenzie’s soulful neo-western heist movie Hell or High Water and Denis Villeneuve's Arrival, a brainy and moving sci-fi, are films for the ages.

The nominations are: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge, Lion 
The winner will be: La La Land
The winner should be: Manchester by the Sea
The imposter is: Fences (Denzel Washington: great actor, mediocre director)
The film that should have been nominated: Love & Friendship

Best Director

Like the Best Picture catagory, Chazelle is the frontrunner. The 31-year-old missed out on a nomination for 2014’s Whiplash, but La La Land shows the young filmmaker to be a natural visual storyteller. His dynamic and often jaw-dropping use of space, colour and movement are the best things about the musical.

The nominations are: Damien Chazelle, Kenneth Lonergan, Denis Villeneuve, Barry Jenkins, Mel Gibson
The winner will be: Damien Chazelle
The winner should be: Damien Chazelle
The imposter is: Mel Gibson – how easily Hollywood forgets
The director who should have been nominated: Mia Hansen-Løve (for Things to Come – because women can direct too, Academy)

Best Actor

Last year’s crop of Best Actor nominees was one of the worst in recent memory, with nods for Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Matt Damon in The Martian and, oh boy, Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl indicating the bottom of a barrel was being scraped. This year’s crop of hopefuls is stronger, but it’s hardly a banner year.

We reckon Casey Affleck's turn in Manchester by the Sea – despite the surge of publicity he’s received for the performance bringing renewed attention to two sexual harassment lawsuits filed against him in 2010 – is the hot favourite. And Batman’s wee brother does deliver a commanding performance as the film’s heartbroken divorcee that’s more than a match for any this year. His closest competition looks to be Denzel Washington, who could join the exclusive three acting Oscars club for his lead role in Fences.

As for the other likely nominees, Ryan Gosling’s turn in La La Land is too lightweight, Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic is too low-key. If there’s a dark horse, it’s Andrew Garfield. He’s nominated for Mel Gibson’s gruelling war movie Hacksaw Ridge, but perhaps combined with his fine performance in the strangely ignored Silence, it might have a cumulative effect on voters.

The nominations are: Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Ryan Gosling, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen
The winner will be: Casey Affleck
The winner should be: Casey Affleck
The imposter: Viggo Mortensen
The actor who should have been nominated: Adam Driver (brilliant in Jim Jarmusch's Paterson)

Best Actress

This category is infuriating. Where is Amy Adams, who carries Arrival using her brilliantly expressive face? Where is Annette Bening, who gave the most mature and heartfelt performance of the year in 20th Century Women? Despite these grumblings, the Best Actress nominees far outstrip their male counterparts in terms of quality. Three are giving the performances of their career: Natalie Portman as Jacqueline Kennedy in Jackie, Emma Stone as a wannabe actress in La La Land and Ruth Negga as Mildred Loving in Loving.

People might roll their eyes at another Meryl Streep nomination, but she was utterly compelling in a tricky role as the world’s worst singer in Stephen Frears' charming Florence Foster Jenkins, and her kickass anti-Trump speech at the Globes makes her even easier to root for. Best in show though it the incomparable Isabelle Huppert, who's utterly badass in Elle, Paul Verhoeven’s troubling black comedy centred on a series of brutal rapes.

The nominations are: Isabelle Huppert, Natalie Portman, Emma Stone, Ruth Negga, Meryl Streep
The winner will be: Emma Stone
The winner should be: Isabelle Huppert
The imposter is: none of them
The actress who should have been nominated: Amy Adams for Arrival

Best Supporting Actor

Four out of five nominations in this category please us immensely. Lucas Hedges is brilliantly spiky as a teen who’s lost his father in Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Bridges is at his most laconic as a grizzled sheriff in Hell or High Water. Michael Shannon's witty and menacing turn in Nocturnal Animals is perhaps the only reason to recommend that Tom Ford film. And Mahershala Ali – the big favourite here – brings such warmth and humanity to his role in the first part of Moonlight’s tryptic that the other two sections suffer without him. Dev Patel doesn't quite hit these levels of brilliance, but he's riveting in Lion nonetheless.

The nominations are: Mahershala Ali, Lucas Hedges, Jeff Bridges, Michael Shannon, Dev Patel
The winner will be: Mahershala Ali
The winner should be: Lucas Hedges
The imposter is: Dev Patel
The supporting actor who should have been nominated: Tom Bennett as a hilariously clueless toff in Love and Friendship

Best supporting actress

Another great set of nominees. Viola Davis gives a barnstorming, snot covered speech in Fences that’s designed for winning awards, and she’s probably the best American actress working right now without an Oscar on her mantlepiece. Octavia Spencer already has a Best Supporting Oscar for her role in the Help, but this might be the best chance the lovely Hidden Figures has of picking up some bling on the night. Michelle Williams has less screentime than both in Manchester by the Sea, but she might be even more impactful. Nicole Kidman, forever underrated, has another memorable turn in Lion, but the film itself is low-wattage. And Naomie Harris, meanwhile, does wonders in Moonlight with what was one of that film's few thankless roles.

The nominations are: Viola Davis, Michelle Williams, Octavia Spencer, Nicole Kidman, Naomie Harris
The winner will be: Viola Davis
The winner should be: Michelle Williams
The imposter is: at a push, Nicole Kidman
The supporting actress who should have been nominated: Olivia Colman as the terrifying hotel manager/matchmaker in The Lobster